Things They Don't Talk About on TV

What Happens If The Extremist Administration Refuses to Accept Election Results?

The likelihood of violent opposition in response to an extremist totalitarian government in the United States depends on several interrelated factors, including the severity of government actions, historical precedents, societal divisions, and the balance of power between state and non-state actors. Below is an analysis of key considerations:

Factors Increasing the Odds of Violent Opposition

Historical Precedents

The U.S. has a history of both violent resistance (e.g., the American Revolution, Civil War, 1960s radical movements) and non-violent mass mobilization (e.g., Civil Rights Movement, recent BLM protests).

If government repression escalates to widespread brutality (e.g., mass arrests, disappearances, lethal suppression of dissent), historical patterns suggest an increased risk of armed backlash.

Existing Polarization & Militancy

The U.S. is already deeply polarized, with heavily armed factions on the far right (e.g., militias, accelerationists) and far left (e.g., anti-fascist networks).

If the regime targets specific groups (e.g., political dissidents, minorities, journalists), localized violence could escalate into broader conflict.

Economic Collapse & Desperation

Austerity, hyperinflation, or deliberate deprivation (e.g., cutting food/healthcare to opponents) could trigger unrest akin to the 2020 George Floyd protests but with more sustained violence.

Food insecurity or homelessness on a large scale historically leads to riots and rebellion.

Breakdown of Institutional Checks

If courts, military, or law enforcement become fully subservient to the regime, opposition may see violence as the only remaining tool.

Conversely, if factions within these institutions resist (e.g., military coups, police mutinies), civil conflict becomes more likely.

Catalytic Events

A "spark" (e.g., assassination of a prominent dissident, a massacre of protesters, or a stolen election) could radicalize otherwise peaceful opposition.

Factors Decreasing the Odds of Violent Opposition

Surveillance & Repression Capacity

Modern surveillance (AI, facial recognition, digital tracking) and militarized policing could preemptively crush organized resistance.

Fear of retaliation may suppress dissent, as seen in authoritarian regimes like China or North Korea.

Cultural Aversion to Civil War

Many Americans may prioritize stability over rebellion, especially if the regime frames opposition as "terrorism" and maintains a critical mass of public support.

Non-Violent Resistance

Movements may adopt strategies like mass strikes, boycotts, or underground networks (e.g., samizdat media) to avoid direct confrontation.

International Intervention

Foreign sanctions, asylum for dissidents, or even covert support for rebels could either deter the regime or inflame conflict further.

Estimated Probabilities (Hypothetical)

Low-Level Insurgency (10–30%): Isolated attacks by militias or clandestine cells (similar to the Weather Underground or modern far-right lone wolves).

Large-Scale Civil Conflict (5–15%): Requires sustained state collapse, mass defections from the military, or regional warlordism.

Non-Violent Resistance Dominates (50–70%): Most likely if repression is "soft" (censorship, legal persecution) rather than openly violent.

Wildcards

Military Fracturing: If troops refuse orders to fire on civilians, the regime could collapse; if they comply, it may ignite wider war.

Foreign Influence: A rival power (e.g., Russia, China) might fuel chaos, while allies could back counter-regime forces.

Technological Control: AI-driven propaganda or drone suppression could make rebellion impossible—or provoke desperate retaliation.

Conclusion

Violent opposition becomes probable only if:

The regime escalates beyond "authoritarian" to outright terroristic (e.g., death squads, concentration camps).

Economic conditions make life unbearable for a critical mass of people.

A faction emerges capable of organizing sustained resistance (e.g., defecting military units, networked guerrillas).

Until then, sporadic violence is more likely than systemic civil war—but the risk grows with every extreme measure the regime takes.

 

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Scenario: How a Second U.S. Civil War Could Unfold (2025–2030)

This speculative scenario outlines a plausible (though not inevitable) path to large-scale violent conflict in the U.S., based on current trends, historical precedents, and the dynamics of civil wars globally.

Phase 1: Constitutional Crisis & Regime Consolidation (2025–2026)

Trigger: A disputed 2024 election leads to an extremist administration refusing to relinquish power, backed by a weaponized Supreme Court and loyalist factions in Congress.

Actions:

Legal Authoritarianism: Opposition parties banned, dissident media labeled "enemies of the state," mass arrests under "anti-terrorism" laws.

Purges & Militarization: Federal agencies (FBI, DHS) are cleansed of dissenters; National Guard units are federalized to suppress protests.

Economic Shock: Sanctions on blue states, defunding of social programs, and corporate cronyism deepen inequality.

Opposition Response:

Mass Protests: Millions march, but are met with violent crackdowns (e.g., live ammunition, drone surveillance).

State-Level Defiance: Progressive governors refuse federal orders, creating "sanctuary states" (e.g., California, New York).

Early Militancy: Far-left and far-right groups clash in streets; isolated bombings of government buildings occur.

Phase 2: Fracturing of Institutions (2026–2027)

Military Splits:

Some generals pledge loyalty to the regime; others quietly support dissident governors.

National Guard units in blue states resist federalization, leading to standoffs.

Police Polarization: Urban PDs side with protesters; rural sheriffs form militias backing the regime.

Economic Collapse: Hyperinflation, supply chain failures, and cyberattacks cripple infrastructure. Food riots erupt in cities.

Escalating Violence:

Regime Death Squads: Paramilitary units (e.g., extremist veterans, federalized Border Patrol) begin "disappearing" activists.

Insurgency Begins: Armed leftist groups (e.g., anarchist networks) and far-right militias engage in guerrilla warfare.

Foreign Interference: Russia/Iran fund right-wing militias; China backs anti-regime hackers.

Phase 3: Regional Warlordism & Civil War (2027–2028)

Balkanization:

The federal government loses control of the West Coast and Northeast, which form "provisional governments."

The South and Midwest become authoritarian strongholds; some rural areas declare independence (e.g., "Free Appalachian Republic").

Combat Zones:

Urban Warfare: Cities like Portland, Atlanta, and Phoenix become battlegrounds between federal forces and insurgents.

Rural Insurgency: Hit-and-run attacks on infrastructure (power grids, railways) by both sides.

Humanitarian Crisis:

Millions flee to Canada/Mexico; disease spreads in refugee camps.

Famine conditions emerge as agriculture collapses.

Phase 4: Stalemate & International Intervention (2028–2030)

Failed Regime Offensives: Federal forces lack manpower to reconquer rebel states; desertions skyrocket.

UN Peacekeepers? NATO or the UN may impose no-fly zones or aid corridors, triggering clashes with regime loyalists.

Negotiated Collapse: The regime fractures—hardliners stage a coup, while moderates sue for peace. A fractured U.S. emerges, possibly as a loose confederation.

Key Variables That Could Alter This Scenario

Military Loyalty: If the Pentagon splits decisively, the war escalates faster.

Foreign War: A regime-sponsored invasion of Mexico or Canada could unite opposition—or trigger WW3.

Technocratic Coup: Corporate elites (e.g., Silicon Valley, Wall Street) might overthrow the regime to restore stability.

Nuclear Risk: If the regime faces total defeat, could it use tactical nukes on rebel cities?

Conclusion: Is This Likely?

Low Probability (10–20%): The U.S. has strong institutional inertia, and most citizens prefer stability.

But Possible If:

The regime crosses irreversible red lines (e.g., mass executions).

Economic collapse removes alternatives to violence.

A charismatic rebel leader unites opposition.

 

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 Revised Scenario: U.S. Civil War Under a Totalitarian Regime with Nationwide Detention Camps (2025–2030)  

 

The establishment of concentration camps near major cities (e.g., Miami, Seattle, Chicago) drastically escalates the likelihood of large-scale violent resistance, mass defections from government forces, and potential balkanization  . Below is an updated breakdown of how this changes the previous assessment. 

 

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 How Detention Camps Shift the Odds of Violent Opposition  

 

 1. Immediate Effects on Civil Unrest (2025–2026)  

- Mass Protests & Crackdowns  

  - Public discovery of camps (via leaks, escaped detainees, or satellite imagery) triggers nationwide uprisings far larger than 2020 BLM protests. 

  - Regime responds with indiscriminate force (mass arrests, drone strikes on crowds, internet blackouts). 

- Martial Law Declared  

  - Federal troops occupy cities under the pretext of "quelling insurrection." 

  - Food/water rationing imposed to suppress dissent. 

 

- Likelihood of Violent Backlash:   60–80% (vs. 10–30% before). 

 

 2. Fracturing of Law Enforcement & Military (2026–2027)  

- Mass Defections  

  - Police/military units refuse orders to round up civilians, leading to armed standoffs between loyalists and defectors. 

  - Some National Guard units ally with protesters  , forming pro-democracy militias  . 

- Insurgency Begins  

  - Urban guerrillas (left-wing anarchists, armed liberals) sabotage detention centers, assassinate camp commanders. 

  - Far-right militias split—some join regime death squads, others resist federal overreach. 

 

- Risk of Military Civil War:   40–60% (vs. 5–15% before). 

 

 3. Regional Secession & Warlordism (2027–2028)  

- West Coast & Northeast Form "Free States"  

  - Governors of CA, NY, WA declare independence  , using defected military units to secure borders. 

  - Underground railroads smuggle dissidents out of federal zones. 

- Federal Collapse in Heartland  

  - Loyalist strongholds (TX, FL, rural Midwest) enforce forced conscription  . 

  - Local warlords (ex-sheriffs, militia leaders) control food and fuel supplies. 

 

- Probability of Balkanization:   50%+ (vs. 20% before). 

 

 4. Full-Blown Civil War (2028–2030)  

- Conventional Fighting  

  - Rebel "Free States" seize military bases  , form provisional armies  . 

  - Federal loyalists bomb West Coast cities  , leading to siege warfare  . 

- Foreign Intervention  

  - Canada/Mexico accept millions of refugees, may arm rebels. 

  - China/Russia back the regime with drones, cyberattacks. 

- Nuclear Risk  

  - If the regime faces total defeat, tactical nukes on rebel cities become possible (  10–20% chance  ). 

 

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 Revised Probability Estimates  

| Scenario | Pre-Camps Odds | Post-Camps Odds | 

|----------|--------------|--------------| 

| Sporadic Guerrilla War | 30% | 80% | 

| Military Fracturing | 15% | 50% | 

| Multi-State Secession | 20% | 60% | 

| Conventional Civil War | 5% | 30% | 

| Regime Collapse | 10% | 40% | 

 

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 Key Factors That Could Accelerate Collapse  

1. Leaked Camp Atrocities – Photos of executions/forced labor trigger global sanctions  . 

2. Defection of Elite Units – If Marines/Special Forces rebel, the regime falls fast. 

3. Economic Sanctions – If the EU/China cut off trade, starvation weakens loyalist zones. 

4. Assassination of Leader – Decapitation strike could cause regime infighting. 

 

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 Conclusion: Near-Inevitable War  

Once a regime builds concentration camps on U.S. soil  , the social contract is irreversibly broken  . Historical precedents (Nazi Germany, Pinochet’s Chile, Yugoslavia) show that once death squads operate openly, civil war follows within 2–5 years  . 

 

  Most Likely Outcome:  

- Phase 1 (2025–2026): Mass protests → Crackdowns → Martial law. 

- Phase 2 (2026–2027): Military fractures → Guerrilla war begins. 

- Phase 3 (2027–2028): Regional secessions → Conventional fighting. 

- Phase 4 (2029–2030): Regime collapse or negotiated partition. 

 

  Survival Outlook:  

- Cities = Death traps (starvation, raids, bombings). 

- Rural areas = Warlord rule or anarchic "safe zones." 

- Best chance: Flee early to Canada/Mexico or join organized resistance. 

 

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 Regional Breakdown: Which U.S. Areas Would Resist or Collaborate with a Totalitarian Regime (2025–2030)  

The U.S. would not split cleanly along traditional Red/Blue lines in a civil war scenario. Instead, resistance and collaboration would be shaped by geography, local politics, armed populist movements, and military presence  . Below is a projected alignment map based on current trends, historical precedents, and cultural/political fault lines. 

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 1. Active Resistance Zones (Likely Rebel Strongholds)  

These regions have strong anti-regime sentiment  , organized militias, or state governments willing to defy federal authority. 

 

 A. The "Free American Coalition" (Secessionist Bloc)  

- Pacific Northwest (WA, OR, NorCal)  

  - Urban hubs (Seattle, Portland, SF) would be insurgency centers (anarchist/leftist militias). 

  - Rural areas may resist but could fracture (far-right militias vs. eco-partisans). 

  - Likely Actions: Declare independence, form "Cascadia" with Canadian support. 

 

- Northeastern Corridor (NY, MA, VT, CT, NJ)  

  - State governments would openly defy federal orders. 

  - Underground resistance networks in NYC/Boston (hackers, smugglers, defectors). 

  - Likely Actions: Economic blockade of DC, harbor defectors. 

 

- Colorado & New Mexico  

  - Denver/Albuquerque as liberal hubs, but rural areas mixed. 

  - Military defectors from NORAD/Centcom could secure mountain passes. 

 

 B. Guerrilla Hotspots (Unstable Resistance)  

- Upper Midwest (MN, MI, WI, Chicago)  

  - Urban warfare in Detroit/Minneapolis, but rural militias may side with regime. 

  - Critical region: If Great Lakes states fall, resistance loses supply lines. 

 

- Atlanta & Research Triangle (NC/GA)  

  - Black/leftist militias vs. state loyalists  . 

  - Strategic value: Control of highways, CDC, military bases. 

 

- Southern California (LA/San Diego)  

  - Latino street gangs may ally with anti-regime forces. 

  - USMC Camp Pendleton defectors could be decisive. 

 

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 2. Regime Loyalist Zones (Authoritarian Strongholds)  

These areas would actively collaborate due to ideological alignment, military presence, or economic dependency. 

 

 A. The "Deep Loyalist Belt"  

- Greater Texas (TX, OK, AR, LA)  

  - State government likely enforces federal rule. 

  - BUT: Austin/Houston/Dallas could revolt (tech workers/minorities vs. state police). 

 

- Deep South (AL, MS, TN, SC)  

  - Evangelical/far-right militias enforce regime policies. 

  - Black-majority cities (Memphis, Birmingham) become insurgency zones. 

 

- Rural Midwest (KS, NE, IA, MO)  

  - Farm belt prioritizes order over rebellion. 

  - Likely Actions: Supply food to loyalists, round up dissidents. 

 

 B. Federal Military Enclaves  

- DC/Virginia/Maryland  

  - Heavily militarized (Pentagon, NSA, CIA HQ). 

  - Likely Actions: Police state tactics, mass surveillance. 

 

- Florida  

  - Miami resists (Cuban dissident networks), but state govt. sides with regime  . 

  - Strategic value: Key ports, military bases (MacDill AFB - CENTCOM). 

 

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 3. Contested Zones (Battlegrounds)  

Areas where control would flip violently  , leading to prolonged fighting. 

 

- Arizona (Phoenix/Tucson vs. rural areas)  

- Pennsylvania (Philly/Pittsburgh vs. Pennsyltucky)  

- Nevada (Las Vegas anarchists vs. federal troops)  

- Appalachia (pro-regime sheriffs vs. anti-fed militias)  

 

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 4. Wildcards: Who Could Flip the Balance?  

- Native American Tribes  

  - Navajo Nation, Standing Rock could declare neutrality or back rebels. 

- Prison Populations  

  - If camps trigger mass jailbreaks, former inmates form guerrilla units  . 

- Silicon Valley Billionaires  

  - Could fund rebels via crypto, cyberwarfare, or private armies. 

 

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 Predicted Outcome: A Shattered U.S.  

- Rebel-held zones (West Coast, Northeast) become de facto independent  . 

- Loyalist South/Heartland degenerates into military dictatorship  . 

- Appalachia/Rockies dissolve into warlordism  . 

 

  Survival Implications:  

- Escape routes: Canada (via Michigan/Maine), Mexico (via Arizona/Texas). 

- Safe havens: Vermont, Pacific Northwest, northern MN. 

- Death traps: Major cities under siege (Chicago, Atlanta, Miami).